Alright, books are closed. That was an interesting end to the week.
I am looking at the XAUUSD weekly candle right now and I wanted to drop a quick note for the daily analysis crew before we disconnect for the weekend. If you are holding heavy positions over the weekend, you really need to be aware of the macro context we are walking into.
The way price action reacted to the highs today screams institutional distribution to me. Retail traders were chasing the breakout all morning, but notice how the smart money used that liquidity to offload positions before the close? We are seeing a classic divergence between price and volume here. The buyers look exhausted.
Don't forget that next week is US Thanksgiving. Historically, the days leading up to the holiday are notorious for liquidity traps. The spreads will widen, the moves will be choppy, and the real trend usually waits until volume returns after the holiday.
Given the geopolitical headlines lingering in the background, the risk of a gap open on Monday is significantly higher than usual. I flattened my books and went 100% cash about an hour before the close. It is simply not worth gambling on weekend news flow right now.
If the weekly candle confirms this rejection, we might be looking at a deeper correction to test the monthly demand zone starting Monday.
Who is actually comfortable holding a long position here? Or are we all sensing a potential rug pull?
Enjoy the weekend, clear your heads, and don't look at the charts until Sunday night.
I am looking at the XAUUSD weekly candle right now and I wanted to drop a quick note for the daily analysis crew before we disconnect for the weekend. If you are holding heavy positions over the weekend, you really need to be aware of the macro context we are walking into.
The way price action reacted to the highs today screams institutional distribution to me. Retail traders were chasing the breakout all morning, but notice how the smart money used that liquidity to offload positions before the close? We are seeing a classic divergence between price and volume here. The buyers look exhausted.
Don't forget that next week is US Thanksgiving. Historically, the days leading up to the holiday are notorious for liquidity traps. The spreads will widen, the moves will be choppy, and the real trend usually waits until volume returns after the holiday.
Given the geopolitical headlines lingering in the background, the risk of a gap open on Monday is significantly higher than usual. I flattened my books and went 100% cash about an hour before the close. It is simply not worth gambling on weekend news flow right now.
If the weekly candle confirms this rejection, we might be looking at a deeper correction to test the monthly demand zone starting Monday.
Who is actually comfortable holding a long position here? Or are we all sensing a potential rug pull?
Enjoy the weekend, clear your heads, and don't look at the charts until Sunday night.