IamC0nner
New member
Hi Fellow Traders,
As we navigate the final stretch of 2025, the Index Futures market (ES, NQ, YM, DAX) is presenting a unique set of challenges and opportunities. With shifting Fed policies and the maturity of the recent tech cycles, the standard "buy and hold" approach is giving way to more tactical, intraday precision.
I wanted to open a discussion to share insights on current market dynamics, technical setups, and how we are all managing risk in this volatility.
We are seeing a distinct shift in how liquidity is moving across the major indices. The correlation between bond yields and the Nasdaq-100 (NQ) seems to be the primary driver right now.
I am currently refining my approach around these key concepts and would love to hear your thoughts:
Leverage in futures requires strict discipline. My current rule is a hard cap of 1% risk per trade with a focus on R:R (Risk-to-Reward) of at least 1:2.
What is your outlook for the remainder of 2025? Are we positioning for a "Santa Rally" into December, or do the technicals suggest a correction is due?
Please share your favorite setups, chart screenshots, or indicators below. Let’s help each other stay on the right side of the trend.
Safe trading to everyone.
As we navigate the final stretch of 2025, the Index Futures market (ES, NQ, YM, DAX) is presenting a unique set of challenges and opportunities. With shifting Fed policies and the maturity of the recent tech cycles, the standard "buy and hold" approach is giving way to more tactical, intraday precision.
I wanted to open a discussion to share insights on current market dynamics, technical setups, and how we are all managing risk in this volatility.
Current Market Landscape & Trends
We are seeing a distinct shift in how liquidity is moving across the major indices. The correlation between bond yields and the Nasdaq-100 (NQ) seems to be the primary driver right now.
- Sector Rotation: Instead of broad market rallies, we are seeing aggressive rotation. Capital is flowing rapidly between Tech and Industrials, creating "chop" for trend followers but excellent opportunities for Mean Reversion traders.
- Algorithmic Price Action: The "Liquidity Sweeps" at the New York Open (09:30 EST) have become more pronounced. Are you finding that price is increasingly hunting stop losses at Previous Day Highs/Lows (PDH/PDL) before choosing a true direction?
Strategies up for Discussion
I am currently refining my approach around these key concepts and would love to hear your thoughts:
- VWAP Rejections: Using the Volume Weighted Average Price as a dynamic support/resistance level, specifically during the mid-day session.
- The Opening Range Breakout (ORB): With the current volatility, is the 30-minute ORB still reliable for you, or are you waiting for the 1-hour candle close to confirm a bias?
- Macro Correlations: How heavily are you factoring in the DXY (Dollar Index) or the 10-Year Yields when taking a position on the S&P 500 (ES)?
Risk Management
Leverage in futures requires strict discipline. My current rule is a hard cap of 1% risk per trade with a focus on R:R (Risk-to-Reward) of at least 1:2.
- Question: Are you using fixed point stops or adjusting based on the daily ATR (Average True Range)?
Let's Discuss
What is your outlook for the remainder of 2025? Are we positioning for a "Santa Rally" into December, or do the technicals suggest a correction is due?
Please share your favorite setups, chart screenshots, or indicators below. Let’s help each other stay on the right side of the trend.
Safe trading to everyone.