Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 107,100.
- Add a stop-loss at 120,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 120,000.
- Set a stop-loss at 107,100.
Bitcoin price held steady above the important psychological level at $125,000 as crypto investors waited for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. It has risen from this month's low of below $108,000
Bitcoin Steady Ahead of the Fed Decision
The BTC/USD pair remained unchanged as the market participants waited for the upcoming Fed decision. In theory, Fed cuts are bullish for Bitcoin and other risky assets like the stock market as investors tend to move to them from the bond market.However, there is a risk that the upcoming rate decision will be bearish for Bitcoin and other risky assets as it has already been priced in by market participants. Also, JP Morgan's top analyst warned that it would be bearish if it sounds hawkish and if it is perceived to be driven by political pressure.
Bitcoin price has been supported by the robust ETF inflows as investors waited for the upcoming interest rate cuts. Data shows that spot ETFs added over $2.3 billion in inflows last week in its best performance since the second week in July. The inflows trend continued on Monday this week.
Bitcoin has also benefited from the ongoing accumulation by companies. Strategy, the biggest holder, bought 525 coins last week, while Metaplanet acquired 136 coins. Public companies have continued loading their balance sheets this month as they seek to replicate Strategy's success.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been moving upwards slightly in the past few days. There are signs that the bullish momentum is falling as the Average Directional Index has remained in a tight range in the past few days.The pair has retested the lower side of the ascending channel and remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Also, the Relative Strength Index and the MACD indicators have stalled.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair pulls back as sellers target the next key support at 107,082, the lowest level this month. The alternative scenario is where the pair continues rising and reaches the important resistance level at 120,000.